The question on everyone's lips in the West is will this latest scandal into alleged corruption by businessmen close to the Turkish Prime Minister bring down his government? The simple answer is no, well not immediately. But will it erode his power? Possibly. By not seeing the warning signs of a growing split in his own party, yes, Mr Erdogan may be in trouble just months away from local elections.
On Christmas day, three cabinet ministers of significant posts resigned; the Environment Minister Erdogan Bayraktar, Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and Interior Minister Muammer Guler. The son's of these ministers were arrested last week in a far reaching corruption probe launched by prosecutors and the police. The news of the ministerial resignations was puzzling at first because MPs in Turkey enjoy parliamentary immunity and therefore even if they were to be investigated themselves they would remain 'the untouchables' while in office.
Then came the public confession of the Environment Minister Erdogan Bayraktar on NTV. The fact that Mr Bayraktar resigned is quite symbolic considering the ongoing anti-government protests over development projects.He told Turkish TV that he was sent a resignation letter. In effect, he was bullied into his resignation as he may well have been bullied into involvement in corruption. He also went on the record as saying that everything he had done was approved by Mr Erdogan and then called for the PM's resignation. So here it is in black and white. Erdogan's bullying tactics were enough to see three of his cabinet ministers resign, Bayraktar from the protection of his own office as MP in protest of Erdogan's tactics. It does beg the question, has Mr Bayraktar spoken to prosecutors sympathetic with Gulen and if so will other's follow suit? It would depend on whether they believe they can seek protection from the cover of the Gulen movement.
Erdogan's rise to power that started in 2002 has been secured over the past decade with the help of Fethullah Gulen, an influential Islamic scholar who resides in the US. With Gulen and his supporters backing Erdogan, he was able to tighten his grip on power to the extent that saw his ruling AK party win with the highest percentage of the vote ever in 2011. Erdogan has served Gulen well. He is the only Islamist politician in recent history that has been able to secure a majority in parliament and crush the military's protective watch on the republic's secular identity. But are these sweet times for the Islamists over? It is clear that Gulen is unhappy with Erdogan's style of governance.
Gulen media has been critical of Erdogan's environmental policies, more vocally since the Gezi Park project. Zaman newspaper has been uber critical of the third bridge project in Istanbul. The first inkling, however, of direct criticism by Gulen may have come the day the Gezi Park protests spiralled into more than just a small environmental movement in the park by tree huggers. The event that sparked the nationwide anti-government protests began with an aggressive act of policing. On a Friday morning in June police went into Gezi Park and tear gassed sleeping protesters (tree huggers), this incident thrust Turkey into social and political turmoil for months.
Erdogan was quick to criticise the police within twenty-four hours for their heavy-handed approach in what seemed like a victory at the time for the protesters. They had the ear of their elected leader. However in reflection, this vocal criticism of police violence may have been a swipe at Gulen rather than a show of support for the cause of the protesters. If it is to be believed that Gulen's influence in the police force is as wide spread as documented by the likes of the investigative journalist Ahmet Sik in his book The Imam's Army, then the act of gassing protesters - that would inevitably lead to a revolt on the street - could well have been orchestrated as Warning Orders by Gulen himself. A clear message to Erdogan to change his style. And it's this battle in itself that leaves many pro-democracy Turks cold. The power of both men is unforgiving and damaging to Turkish democracy.
Within one week, the revolt in Taksim hit the prime minister where it hurts, in the pocket. Four days after the Gezi Park protests began, the financial markets took a direct hit. In response Turkish channels NTV and CNN Turk gave over to coverage of the protests in Taksim Square. News bulletins showed peaceful protesters along with the violence after ignoring the story for days. The money in Ankara had finally started flexing its muscle. These two channels are owned by extremely powerful and wealthy businessmen, who have not always seen eye to eye with the prime minister.
With just three months to go before local elections, what can we understand from this latest move against those close to the PM? Is Gulen sending Erdogan a clear message to change his style again? Yes. This after the government made moves in November to close hundreds of private schools, which are part of the Gulen network. With the ongoing scandal, it is crystal clear that there is now a split developing within the prime minister's core supporters in the ruling party. After all AK Party has always been a loose coalition of the willing. What does this mean? It could help the Kurdish party in upcoming polls if they play their cards right. Many of the Kurdish conservative vote swung Erdogan's way during the past two terms. Could the main opposition CHP gain in Istanbul? Possibly, but only if they hire a new speech writer!
Erdogan's biggest threat at the moment is hubris and he needs to get a handle on it. What on earth are his advisors telling him? Yigit Bulut, one of his more recently employed advisors believes that telekineses is behind much of Erdogan's political woes, well, if he gets promoted it's easy to see where this is going. While no one can deny Mr Erdogan has definitely done a lot for the Turkish economy while providing better services for his citizens and demanding attention on the world stage, it's painfully obvious that he has done little for democracy. Turkey topped out as the world's leading jailer of journalists in 2013 for the second year running.
The democratically savvy way out of the current scandal would have been to fire the ministers as soon as the corruption scandal hit, not bully them into resigning. The resignation of Turkey's Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan will also send a message that the country is unstable to outsiders. This won't help Erdogan either. He really does need to get a grip on his own arrogance and make some changes to the way he rules or face further clashes with the Gulen movement. He fired Egeman Bagis, EU affairs minister and Sports Minister Suat Kilic, two loyal subjects, a sign that he is definitely running for cover. The local elections may be the ticket. If the opposition can capitalise on this ongoing feud within AK Party, perhaps that's all the Warning Orders Turkey's new Pasha will need. The public want him to listen and it seems the Gulen movement do too, and that is a call he can not ignore.
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