How else are you going to catch a corrupt prime minister?

In the past twelve hours, over one and a half million people have listened to the alleged recording of the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, telling his son to hide thirty millions euros in cash. The recordings, which are said to have been made the day a corruption probe was launched in December against the sons of three key ministers, will leave Erdogan reeling. He repeatedly tells his son not to speak openly, but Bilal states how much money there is and where he's hidden it. It makes for fascinating listening, even if, as the prime minister claims, it is false.

 4th call 23.15

Bilal Erdogan:  Hi daddy, I am calling to… we did [it] mostly. Eee, did you call me daddy?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan :  No I did not, you called me.

BE:  I was called from a secret number

RTE:  By saying mostly, did you fully dissolve it.

BE: We did not zeroized it yet daddy. Let me explain.. We still have a 30 million euros that we could not yet dissolve. Berat thought of something. There was an additional 25 million dollars that Ahmet Calik should receive. They say let’s give this [to him] there. When the money comes, we do [something], they say. And with the remaining money we can buy a flat from Sehrizar, he says. What do you say, father?

RTE: (background soun: Ayyy)

BE: Daddy

RTE: Is Sumeyye with you?

BE: Yes with me, should I call her?

RTE: No, there was another sound, that’s why I asked

BE: Umm.. I mean, he can transfer 35 million dollars to Calik and buy a flat from Sherizar with the remaining.

RTE: Whatever, we will sort it

BE: Should we do it like this?

RTE: OK do it

BE: Do you want them all dissolved father, or do you want some money for yourself

RTE: No, it cannot stay, son. You could transfer that to the other, with Mehmet you could transfer it there…

BE: Yes, we gave to them. We gave 20 to them.

RTE: For God’s sake, first you should’ve transferred you could then do.

BE: We were able to give this much for now, it is hard already, it takes too much space. We are putting some of it to another place, we gave part of it to Tunc, and then…

RTE: did you transfer all to Tunc?

BE: (Sumeyye, can you come) Where, father?

RTE: To Tunc, I say, did you transfer all to Tunc?

BE: They asked, I guess he said that he could take 10 million euros.

RTE: Whatever. Do not talk this like this on this.

BE: OK, then, we will sort it as such.

RTE: Ok do it. I am not able to come tonight, I will stay in Ankara.

BE:OK, we are sorting it out. You do not worry.

NOTES: Sumeye is Erdoagn's daughter, Berat is his other son. Calik is a building/oil/media magnet.

In response the government quickly hit back and said that there has been at least 2000 phones tapped illegally in Turkey by prosecutors loyal to the Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen. But one wonders how else are you going to catch a corrupt prime minister, especially if the law is not on your side. Pro-government media estimate the number of tapped phones is as high as 7000.

While it's clear there is a battle going on between Erdogan and Gulen, which may now escalate with further measures against Gulen businesses - in November the government took measures to close down a network of Gulen affiliated schools. It's also clear that Erdogan and his ministers don't run an all together transparent ship and that his son has once again dropped him in it. The questions now is, will Erdogan survive this scandal as prime minister?

Back in the late nineties, when Erdogan was serving as the mayor of Istanbul, Bilal killed a prominent singer in a hit and run as she crossed the road in the swank Istanbul neighbourhood of Levent. It was reported, at the time, that Bilal didn't hold a drivers' license, yet he was acquitted and then sent abroad. There were also stories the police scrubbed the skid marks off the road to create a narrative that would fit with Bilal's defence. Erdogan may now be wishing that his son never came home.

Notably Erdogan's political career didn't end there. It merely suffered a hick-up, though not because of the cover up of Bilal's driving history, but because he read a poem at a political rally that was seen to be anti-secular. Erdogan was arrested and imprisoned for reading that poem, and effectively removed from the mayorship. But he bounced back with the support of the Gulen Movement and became a hero to the millions of people who were fed up with the militant nature of the secular state. 

One wonders where all this scandal will leave Erdogan and the AK Party, just one month ahead of local elections. The government is trying to stem the leaks that just keep coming. Last week a new law was passed that effectively tightens control on the internet, so it wouldn't be surprising if Turkey returns to the days of banning Youtube - the recordings were uploaded there, although by who is not clear.

The prime minister office said in a statement, following an emergency meeting with the chief of intelligence, that the taped conversations are 'entirely untrue'. But one wonders how Turkey will recover from this ongoing scandal unless the prime minister admits defeat. How many accusations does it take before a politician loses all credibility? Everyone is losing here. 

The lira hit an all time low again, which means foreign debt will keep rising, most of which belongs to the private sector. Consumer confidence is down 43% since the Gezi Park protests last June and the atmosphere in Turkey when it comes to open debate and any potential journalistic investigation into catching corrupt officials is toxic. 

Most people, even the middle class, work six or seven days a week and their earned money is continuing to devalue. They deserve a more transparent leadership and a day off. They should also vote Erdogan out of power in the upcoming elections, because if a taped conversation of this magnitude can't do it, only the ballot box will. As one Turk put it this morning, 'The country is collapsing with filth.' 

Erdogan's Fate

The political crisis in Turkey is deepening and the prime minister, Mr Erdogan, it seems can do nothing to reverse it. Since a corruption probe led to three MPs resigning from key posts, and a cabinet reshuffle, the damage has yet to be contained. A total of seven MPs have resigned and Erdogan called a meeting with Media chiefs on Saturday in an attempt to control the message. But with social media being such a popular mode of communication it may be attempting the impossible. On Friday the deputy PM Bulent Arinc criticised members of AKP, his own party, for tweeting 'too much'. He used the words 'citir citir' to describe them, which literally means 'crackle crackle'. Within twenty four hours of the criticism by the deputy PM a member of AKP tweeted simply 'citir citir', poking fun at Mr Arinc. If nothing else, it shows a growing descent within the party. There once was a time when AKP didn't criticise itself. Happening at this time, it goes to show just how big a challenge the prime minister is facing. There are a number of scenarios unfolding in Turkey at the moment: 

ONE: President Abdullah Gul will return to steer the party and Erdogan will be filed away into the depths of the presidential palace, a largely symbolic role. For the first time since the crisis began, president Gul spoke yesterday, not that he offered a way out of the stand off between elements of the Turkish state sympathetic to Gulen, and/or Erdogan. The response from some Turks, 'at least we know our president is still alive', a reference to Gul's hands off approach to the current crisis, but then there's not much a president can do. It's a post with no executive power. And while it may be a dead end job, the presidential post in its current form with no executive power may be a saving grace for Mr Erdogan, who has managed to alienate himself from his allies at home and abroad. This may secure the support of the 'cemaat/community' the name used for Gulen sympathisers, guided by their leader who still prefers an Islamist party in power. 

TWO: Erdogan will judge by himself his chances in a general elections by results in the upcoming local elections scheduled for March. General elections are planned for 2015, but unless he is able to perform a miracle it seems difficult that this will be the way forward. The corruption scandal has unleashed a wave of criticism. It has opened Pandora's Box as they say and all of his failures are now being judged. On domestic and foreign policy, Gezi Park and Syria are leading the debate. This week Turkish media reported a truck carrying arms crossed the Syrian border after customs police were told not to stop it. The foreign minister is reported to be insisting that Assad be toppled, in contrast to what most in the international community now believe since the US strike didn't happen. The Reyhanli bombing which left over 50 dead in a Turkish border town, a spill over from the conflict next door, has not been forgotten here. The relationship with the US is also on trial. Most Turks believe Washington plays an influential role in who their leader is and Erdogan has distanced himself from the US and Israel, and therefore from the cemaat. Gulen lives in the US and harbours no emotion towards the Palestinian cause. The 'one minute' public humiliation of the Israeli president at Davos and the Mavi Marmara incident that saw nine activists killed on an aid ferry sailing to break the Gaza blockade, a ferry that was sanctioned by the Turkish government and sailed from Turkey, are both examples of where Erdogan went wrong for the cemaat. Erdogan's ambitions are neo-Ottoman in terms of empire building, but in contrast to the Gulen vision of Turkish Islam, Erdogan's dream is to become the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood regionally. He sees himself as the father of a successful political party rooted in Islam, a model for North Africa and the Middle East. These acts of open defiance against Israel earned him kudos on the Arab street, but that hasn't been enough to save him. The events of Syria have shown that the PM miscalculated his power in this regards. These dreams are now over. 

THREE: The main opposition party, the CHP, secular republicans, will form an alliance with the cemaat - an unlikely bed fellow, but it looks like this may become a plausible way forward. Mr Kilicdaroglu, head of the party, visited the US, where Gulen lives, a week before the corruption probe started. Many commentators believe that they may have made a deal and the cemaat will help the CHP play for the centre ground in general elections. There are signs that this may be true. Mustafa Sarigul, a popular guy in his own district of Istanbul, will run for mayor in the local elections. If he does well, he may become the new face of the CHP in the general elections. The current leader Kilicdaroglu is Alevi, a factor that can't be ignored. It will prevent some Sunnis from voting CHP, the ones that are fed up with Erdogan. So a change of leadership for the CHP would be a strategy that might help them at the ballot box. Kilicdaroglu seems to have grasped the moment to make these changes is now. A real break from the past CHP under Deniz Baykal, who lost eleven elections and clung to power. This new formula may give Erdogan a run for his money as Sarigul is charismatic and business orientated. 

The breakdown of Turkish core voters can be loosely defined: AKP 30%, CHP 20%, MHP 10% (nationalists), BDP 10% (Kurdish), 30% undecided liberals/ conservative Kurds and cemaat (centre right). If Erdogan loses the conservative Kurdish voters and the cemaat he may find it hard to rule with a majority and the notion that he would work within a coalition is one that doesn't inspire. 

Something that has recently hit the headlines is Turkey's relations with its regional rival, Iran. If commentators are right, then the P5+1 may look to Turkey for any falters it experiences with the nuclear negotiations in Geneva. A gold for oil scandal and reports that one in six companies opened in Turkey last year were Iranian, implies Ankara has been propping up the Iranian economy at a time when tougher economic sanctions were part of the P5+1 strategy to bring Iran to the negotiating table. 

At war with Syria, at odds with the military in Egypt, sinking into a sticky situation with Iran, Turkey's foreign policy is in disarray just as much as AKP's house is at home. Given the list of miscalculations by Erdogan over the past twelve months, it looks less likely that he will come out of this ahead, but this is Turkey and politics are dynamic here. Corruption is a major problem, bribes are part of the business culture, but the fact that it is now out in the open is a development that Erdogan can not flee from. The coming months are going to be critical not only for the PM but also for his party should it want to survive and thrive once more.